Which candidates did Polly O'brien's money end up backing or attacking in 2020?

against Donald Trump (President, about $173K, won); for Joe Biden (President, about $124K, won); against Steve Daines (Montana Senate, about $73K, lost). Amounts are the donor's share of each group's spending.

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Donor

Polly O'brien

Individual

Retired · New Mexico

4 gifts to 1 group, as reported to the FEC by the groups that received them.

Mixed

Polly O'brien gave $965K to super PACs and other outside groups in the 2020 federal elections, and 100% of it helped Democrats (FEC filings through Dec 31, 2020). Counting dollars, not candidates, and only races already called, 50% ended up on the winning side ($361K won, $364K lost).

Gave to outside spenders

$965K

100% of it helped Democrats

Ended up on the winning side

50%

$361K of the dollars in races already called

Spent on the losing side

$364K

Not spent yet

$239K

Sitting with groups that have not spent

Where the cheques went

A person writing cheques from their own fortune. Each gift is split the way the group that received it split its spending between winners and losers, so a $10M cheque to a group that spent 80% on losers counts as $8M on the losing side.

✓ Backed the winner or attacked the loser ✗ Backed the loser or attacked the winner Result not matched

Group	Gave	How the group spent it	Won / lost
Lcv Victory Fund $235K not spent yet	$965K		$361K / $364K

The trail

What the money bought

The candidates Polly O'brien's money was spent for or against, pro-rated by Polly O'brien's share of each group's funding.

Candidate	Race	Spending	Their share	Paid off?
Donald Trump	President	Attacking	$173K	✓ Yes
Joe Biden	President	Supporting	$124K	✓ Yes
Steve Daines	Montana Senate	Attacking	$73K	✗ No
Joni Ernst	Iowa Senate	Attacking	$65K	✗ No
Theresa Greenfield	Iowa Senate	Supporting	$32K	✗ No
Lindsey Graham	South Carolina Senate	Attacking	$26K	✗ No
Martha McSally	Arizona Senate	Attacking	$26K	✓ Yes
Steve Bullock	Montana Senate	Supporting	$19K	✗ No
Susan Margaret Collins	Maine Senate	Attacking	$15K	✗ No
Dan Sullivan	Alaska Senate	Attacking	$14K	✗ No
Carlos Gimenez	Florida 26th District	Attacking	$13K	✗ No
Gary Peters	Michigan Senate	Supporting	$13K	✓ Yes

Individual as classified from the FEC entity type and public reporting.

Questions people ask

How much did Polly O'brien spend on the 2020 elections, and did it win?: Polly O'brien gave $965K to super PACs and other outside groups in the 2020 federal elections, and 100% of it helped Democrats (FEC filings through Dec 31, 2020). Counting dollars, not candidates, and only races already called, 50% ended up on the winning side ($361K won, $364K lost).
Which super PACs did Polly O'brien fund in 2020?: Lcv Victory Fund ($965K).
Which candidates did Polly O'brien's money end up backing or attacking in 2020?: against Donald Trump (President, about $173K, won); for Joe Biden (President, about $124K, won); against Steve Daines (Montana Senate, about $73K, lost). Amounts are the donor's share of each group's spending.